Day 19-A new routine

randy | March 31, 2020, 11:28 a.m.

Tuesday, March 31st, 2020

I think I have the coronavirus, if one of the symptoms is seeing everything through a yellow film. The pollen is so thick, I think they need to start reporting it as a percentage of air, like the humidity level.

Seriously though, thank goodness for the rain today. If not for that, I wouldn't be able to open the windows to enjoy these rare moderate temperatures. My asthma is exasperated by these insane levels. I start sneezing and coughing so loud that people walking by the house are startled.

Well, the big news now is the expected mortality peak forecasted around April 21 or 22nd. That also would indicate that the number of cases would have leveled off by then. The bulk of deaths trails the peak of cases, based on my review of other countries numbers.

One thing I think most others are getting wrong is the recovery period: Flattening the curve does not mean eliminating it. What it means is once we are passed the peak, we will have a long tail of cases, more in line with an extended Flu season. I expect that once the bulk of Americans are released from shelter-in-place orders, they will be still wearing masks and going through sanitizer like by the gallon. I really don't expect a recovery to last less than 9 months.

It reminds me of the recovery of a disaster. There are several stages: Rescue, Repair, Reconstruction. Each one has a factor of 10x the length of the previous, as a general rule. For this, I see us sheltering for 5-6 weeks, then 5-6 months of slowly repairing the economic damage and then 4-5 years to truly be ready for the next time, assuming we as a society take the hard-learned lessons to heart.

Moving on. Today was the first day that both kids really stuck to their schedules. They both are worn out from the confinement and lack of social interaction. I keep thinking back to the first week about how we all treated this like a minor inconvenience. I see now how short-sighted I was. Of course, if no one else thinks it is going to last long, it is a challenge to get others to see the seriousness without looking like a paranoid, pessimistic disaster-monger.

It doesn't really help my case to walk around going "Told Ya" either.

On the positive side, my immediate reaction was spot-on: we have the supplies we need without having hoarded. I can see how we will be challenged to get some things in a couple of weeks. I can see how the stress others are facing of providing for their own families is affecting the general community. My real concern is how the next 2-3 weeks are going to create new challenges if we don't start to see the light at the end of the tunnel by later April.

Stay Safe and Healthy!